The year is drawing to a close, which means we already know the lineup for the 2026 Candidates Tournament. Next year, the World Chess Champion will be crowned, and the Candidates Tournament—the most prestigious chess tournament in the world—will decide who becomes the challenger to the defending champion, Gukesh.

We already know the tournament will begin with an opening ceremony on Saturday, 28/03/2026—i.e., in three months. The games themselves start a day later. The tournament has fourteen rounds (double round-robin, everyone plays everyone twice) and the players will have a total of four rest days. The final round is scheduled for Wednesday, 15/04, and any tie-break plus the closing ceremony will take place the next day, 16/04/2026. It will be played in Cyprus, which will host a major chess event for the first time—specifically in the city of Pegeia on the island’s west coast.

All participants have also been decided. As the winner of the 2024 FIDE Circuit, Caruana qualified, and for 2025, Praggnanandhaa. From the Grand Swiss, Anish Giri and Matthias Blübaum advanced; from the World Cup, Sindarov, Wei Yi, and Esipenko; and the rating spot will officially go to Hikaru Nakamura on January 1.

Below is the field with their current ratings and ranking positions, which of course may still change before the tournament.

Hikaru Nakamura world no. 2 FIDE Elo 2810

Fabiano Caruana world no. 3 FIDE Elo 2795

Praggnanandhaa world no. 7 FIDE Elo 2761

Anish Giri world no. 8 FIDE Elo 2760

Wei Yi world no. 9 FIDE Elo 2754

Javokhir Sindarov world no. 22 FIDE Elo 2726

Andrey Esipenko world no. 34 FIDE Elo 2698

Matthias Blübaum world no. 43 FIDE Elo 2679

The last four named are Candidates debutants; Praggnanandhaa is playing for the second time, Giri for the third, Nakamura for the fourth, and Caruana for the sixth. Caruana is also the only former champion of the event—he won the 2018 edition.

As for big names who failed to qualify: if we subtract World Champion Gukesh and also Magnus Carlsen (who is no longer interested in the title), then from the world top ten three players did not qualify: Vincent Keymer, Arjun Erigaisi, and Alireza Firouzja. They will have to hope to make it in the next cycle.

Predictions

Purely mathematically, each participant has a 12.5% chance of winning, but of course we know some have a better chance than others. I decided to try to express, in percentages, how I see each player’s chances.

Praggnanandhaa – 23%

My main favorite at the moment is Praggnanandhaa, because he was the best player of 2025 in classical chess. He won Tata Steel Masters, the Superbet Chess Classic, and the UzChess Cup—three very strongly fielded super-tournaments. He was clearly the most consistent and strongest player of the year. Moreover, he has already played the Candidates and thus has experience he can build on. One thing that could work against him is his general willingness to go into drawish positions.

Fabiano Caruana – 21%

Caruana is a player of such class that he will be among the favorites at least as long as he keeps playing. In classical chess, he is the second most successful player of the Magnus Carlsen era. He is the third highest-rated chess player in history by Elo rating and the winner of more than twenty super-tournaments. He is also the most experienced participant in the field and the only former winner. He will also be highly motivated, because this may be his last big chance to win the coveted title before the new generation fully takes over. Against him, one might cite slightly weaker mental resilience and a tendency to struggle in tense time trouble.

Hikaru Nakamura – 20%

Nakamura will be the oldest player in the tournament and, by his own words, this will be his last attempt to win the chess crown. If nothing changes before the start of the tournament, he will enter as the top seed and one of the on-paper favorites. Against him is the fact that in recent years he has played very little and may be out of practice. Moreover, he has now become a father, and these new responsibilities do not mesh well with conscientious tournament preparation.

Anish Giri – 11%

Giri had a multi-year lull, but now he is back in the top 10 and full of confidence after winning the Grand Swiss. Because of his drawing reputation he has never been among the biggest favorites, but he has already shown he can win a major super-tournament. However, to win this tournament he will have to aim for a different result than the legendary 14 draws from one of his previous appearances.

Wei Yi – 10%

Chinese grandmaster Wei Yi will be playing for the first time, and I think it will show. He is an excellent defender and a very solid player who is hard to beat. But to win such a tournament you also need offensive ambitions. Perhaps Wei will still work on that. He is a top-10 player, so his triumph would not be an absolute shock.

Javokhir Sindarov – 8%

The winner of the recent World Cup is a young rising star, and such players are always very dangerous. He could well be the next great figure in chess, and in that case a triumph at the Candidates would be another step in his meteoric rise—similar to some world champions who suddenly shot all the way to the top. It is of course not very likely, but it is possible. Against him will, naturally, be inexperience.

Andrey Esipenko – 5%

Esipenko is currently just under 2700, but he reached 2723 and was as high as world no. 24. So it can be said that he is now returning to his former level. He is still young but experienced. His victory would be a shock, but he can post a good result and shake up the standings. He is certainly capable of upsetting one of the favorites.

Matthias Blübaum – 2%

The German player Blübaum is the most surprising participant in the tournament and the only one who has never yet crossed the 2700 mark. Therefore, of course, he will be in a position where he can only surprise, and a potential tournament victory would be nothing less than the biggest shock in the history of the Candidates Tournament. He can expect opponents to prepare thoroughly for him, because in games against him they will see a chance to score points.

The winner of the tournament will face Gukesh in the fall for the World Championship title in classical chess.